Regional Technical Operations Work Group

Overview

• Regional analyses in support of planning activities related to emissions and modeling for regional haze, ozone, PM, and other indicators.
• Evaluation of background and regional transport, international transport, sensitivity and other analyses of emissions data focused on the western U.S.
• Perform and leverage modeling, data analysis, and contribution assessment studies.
• Investigation of “background ozone” impacts to western U.S. locations.
• Coordination and collaboration with other WRAP member-sponsored regional air quality modeling groups including IWDW, NW-AIRQUEST, EPA-OAQPS, BAAQMD, and otherstate and local agencies performing regional ozone modeling.
• Provide guidance on more complete and uniform model performance evaluations (MPEs).
• Develop and implement a protocol to use the IWDW-WAQS capabilities as the WRAP Regional Technical Center.

Preliminary Estimates of Projected 2028 Visibility Conditions (April 27, 2020)

• Preliminary 2028 Visibility Projections Estimates (for paired scenarios: from 2014v2 to 2028OTBb and Representative Baseline to 2028OTBa) (XLS, 19 MB) – this workbook provides 2028 modeled visibility projection estimates by Class I area using the default projection approach from EPA guidance for these 2 pairs of modeling scenarios. Review the README tab before using, as well as the White Paper - Potential Procedures for Making 2028 Visibility Projections using the WRAP 2014 Modeling Platform. On the data display tabs, you will then need to select the monitoring site acronym and other settings to access the graphical displays for the Class I area(s) of interest. These are preliminary estimates using a single method for 2 pairs of modeling scenarios, and results of additional projections methods for these scenarios’ pairs, and other pairs of modeling scenarios, will be added. The goal is to move away from spreadsheets and show all projections results’ estimates on the TSS.
• Additional projections workbooks to be added

Guidance Documents (final and draft as noted)

March 30, 2020 (draft, open for review and comment) - Source Apportionment Modeling using the 2028 On-the-Books Emissions Scenario

March 2020 Regional Haze Modeling Plan update (PDF) (final)

March 24, 2020 (draft v4, this draft open for review and comment until April 16) - White Paper - Potential Procedures for Making 2028 Visibility Projections using the WRAP 2014 Modeling Platform

January 2020 Regional Haze Modeling Plan update (PDF) (final)

WRAP/WAQS2014/2028 Regional Haze Modeling Run Specification Sheets (final)

Run Specification Sheets produced in Feb. 2020 that define simulation(s) to be carried out using the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP)/Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) 2014 photochemical grid model modeling platform:

1. Representative Baseline and 2028OTB: (Feb. 27, 2020) Representative Baseline emissions scenarios represents emissions from the 2014-2018 period including using representative fire emissions developed by the Fire and Smoke Work Group (FSWG). Two 2028 On-the-Book emissions scenarios are being developedwith 2028OTBa using the FSWG representative baseline fire emissions and 2028OTBb using the 2014 actual fire emissions.
2. Natural (NAT) and No International Anthropogenic Emissions (ZROW): (Feb. 5, 2020) Paired 2014 GEOS-Chem global and CAMx Representative Baseline emissions regional photochemical model simulations (Geos-Chem provides Boundary Conditions to CAMx) are being carriedout that zero-out portions of the anthropogenic emissions inventory: (a) NAT eliminates all anthropogenic emissions world-wide in the GEOS-Chem and CAMx simulations; and (b) ZROW eliminates all non-U.S. (International) anthropogenic emissions (Zero-out Restof World, ZROW).
3. Source Apportionment Simulations using Current Year Representative Baseline Emissions: The CAMx particulate (PSAT) and ozone (APCA) source apportionment tools will be used to analyze fire, natural, U.S. vs. International anthropogenicemissions and other source contributions to ozone and particulate matter/visibility impairment for the Representative Baseline current year emissions scenario.
4. Dynamic Evaluation 2002 Simulation: (Feb. 24, 2020) The 2014v2 U.S. anthropogenic emissions are being backcast to 2002 and a CAMx 2002 simulation conducted in order to compare modeled and observed changes in visibility between the 2000-2004 Baseline and the 2014-20185-year planning periods.
5. Weighted Emissions Potential (WEP)/Area of Influence (AOI): (Feb. 27, 2020) HYSPLIT back trajectories are being performed from IMPROVE monitoring sites representing Class I Areas on the IMPROVE Most Impaired Days (MID) during 2014-2018 to rank the source regionsand point sources whose emissions would most likely contribute to visibility impairment at a Class I Area on the MID.

Calls, Meetings, and Notes

April 29, 2020 call

Agenda (notes)

• Welcome, agenda review, roll call, note-taking duties, discuss future calls and webinars – Mike Barna / Kevin Briggs / Gail Tonnesen
• Ramboll modeling progress report – Ralph Morris
• Summary comparing 2028 Regional Haze projections using WRAP modeling results to date to EPA 2016-based results – Gail
• Overview of projections methods – Pat Brewer and Tom Moore
• Review draft of May 19-20 WebEx/call agenda on TSS-delivered Regional Haze monitoring/emissions/PAC1 vs. OTB projections results – Tom
• Action items and WRAP-up – Mike/Kevin/Gail

March 31, 2020 call

Agenda (notes)

• Welcome, Roll Call, Agenda Review – Mike, Gail, Kevin
• Ramboll presentation (PDF)
  • 2028OTBb (future year 'on the books' with 2014v2 fires) results applied to calculate reasonable progress goals
  • Weighted Emissions Potential / Area of Influence (WEP / AOI) results and delivery via browser
  • Review spec sheet for 2028OTBb PSAT and APCA – source categories and regions
• March 2020 Regional Haze Modeling Plan update – Tom
• Plans for upcoming RTOWG calls - Mike

March 12, 2020 National Oil & Gas Emissions Committee call – presentation by Brian Timin: EPA 2028 Regional Haze Modeling - Modeled Oil & Gas Impacts

March 12, 2020 call (Agenda) (notes)

Ramboll modeling progress presentation

White Paper - Potential Procedures for Making 2028 Visibility Projections using the WRAP 2014 Modeling Platform

February 26, 2020 call (Agenda) (notes)

Modeling Progress Report (PDF)

January 22, 2020 Notes

Agenda

1. Welcome/agenda review/roll call/notetaking – Mike, Gail, Kevin
2. Model performance evaluation of CAMx 2014v2 presentation - Ralph Morris (Ramboll) (PDF)
3. “2014v2 to representative baseline” emissions changes by sector by state, including showing the grid cell state definitions,and EGU unit level “2014v2 to representative baseline” emissions changes in the WRAP region specifically – presentation and spreadsheet review - Tejas Shah (Ramboll) (PPT)
4. Review spec sheet for upcoming: representative baseline source apportionment run - Ralph Morris (Ramboll) (DOC)
5. Next RTOWG call (date/time and agenda items) – Mike, Gail, Kevin

November 19, 2019 Call Agenda/Notes

Sept. 10, 2019 call

Agenda

1. Welcome / Roll Call / Note-taking / Agenda Review – Mike / Kevin / Gail
2. Review of modeling deliverables and updated schedule – next ~2 months – Ralph (PPT)
3. White Paper on International Contributions / Boundary Conditions – Mike (PPT)
4. 2028 Modeling Scenarios – Tom (PDF)
5. Review agenda items and time/date of next call (Oct. 15th)

August 6, 2019 Call Agenda/Notes

Alaska Visibility Analysis presentation (PPTX)

+++++++++++++

August 2019 Regional Haze Modeling Plan update (PDF)

Western Modeling Domains (PNG)

Regional Haze Modeling Scenarios – June 20, 2019 (XLSX)

Materials from RTOWG / IWDW-WAQS 2014v1 Shakeout Modeling Platform Results meeting
Friday, April 5, 2019 9:00 AM to 4:30 PM MDT, Denver

Shakeout Deliverables and EPRI International Haze Study (Ralph)

Sensitivity Modeling Comparison Results (Ramboll)

• Meteorology
• Biogenics
• Boundary Conditions

Emissions Processing Results

• Overview of v1 emissions (Ramboll and UNC)
• Overview of expected v2 and representative baseline scenarios’ input changes (Tom)

Air Quality Modeling Results - Model Performance Evaluation (Marco)

IWDW / TSSv2 Ingestion and Data Displays for Shakeout Platform (Shawn)

Modeling Plan and Recommendations (Ralph)

Next Steps and v2 work assignment (Tom)

February 12, 2019 Call Agenda and Notes

Uniform Rate of Progress Adjustment presentation (PPT)

Shakeout Modeling Platform progress report (PPT)

WRAP Workplan – RTOWG Appendix E draft for review (DOC)

August 16, 2018 Notes (PDF)

Fiore presentation (PDF)

Neu presentation (PDF)

Modeling Representativeness Analysis Project


Final Report (PDF)

Data Displays for Final Report (PDF)

TSC-WGs-Subcommittee Membership (XLS, May 16, 2018)

Reference Material

• 2018-19 WRAP Workplan
• EPA July 2017 emissions inventory guidance for implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations
• EPA Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainmentof Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (final- November 2018)